The day before the World Championships started, we made a few predictions as to how the British team which dominated the last two Worlds and the Summer Games in Beijing would perform. Here we look back at those predictions and see how close we got.
This is what we said -
The medal hopes would seem to rest with the few senior squad members taking part. Olympic heroines Victoria Pendleton and Wendy Houvenaghel and Steven Burke, Jason Kenny and Jamie Staff from the men's squad.
Not a bad start – all of them did win medals. And while we didn't predict Lizzie Armitsteads full set of Gold, Silver and Bronze in our intro, we did tip her for a couple in the rider-by-rider preview.
The general feeling at the start of the event is that the total medal count for this event would struggle to reach double figures – barely half the total from the previous two events.
And there, as it happens, the general feeling was right – although only just.
Trackcycling has left its predictions as late as possible and our view is slightly more optimistic (or pessimistic, if you're not a Brit!). We still think a dominant sixteen medal total is a realistic goal – thanks in large part to Victoria Pendleton - although Golds might be harder to come by than they have in the recent past – Pendleton aside. This is where we think they'll come from...
OK, so maybe we were a touch optimistic, but as you'll see we were rarely more than a place or two out in our predictions. Too often, though, that place was the difference between 3rd and 4th.
Endurance
Jonathan Bellis, Steven Burke and Ed Clancy are likely to be joined by veteran Chris Newton for the team pursuit. With Clancy the only member of the winning Olympic team, it looks like a big ask, but we think GB are far enough ahead in this event – and have such strength in depth – that they can pull it off. Our prediction : Gold
We were half right – it was a big ask. The boys rode well over the first 3km and just faded a little in the last couple of laps. To put out a squad with that little experience and qualify for the Bronze medal ride-off in 3rd place – just 3 tenths off the final - would normally be cause for celebration – especially given that the Danes and the Kiwis fielded their experienced, Olympic squads.
It felt flat, though – partly because this was a GB pursuit squad and they were expected to make the final, at the very least, and partly because the Australian squad which took Silver is as young and inexperienced as the Brits are.
Look at the times, though, and you see a team that was fastest over the first kilometre, second fastest at half distance and still second with 1km to go. It was the next two laps that did the damage – with the team finishing very strongly. There are lessons to be learned, but they're very, very close.
A mention, too, for Jonny Bellis, who rode in the Men's Omnium. We didn't make a prediction here, so we couldn't get it wrong, but for the record Bellis finished 13th after mid-field performances in all the events.
Mark Cavendish and Peter Kennaugh have a good chance in the Madison – particularly if Cav can put in a Milan-San Remo style burst to take a lap at the right time. The tactics have to be different from last year, though. Our prediction : Gold. Or nowhere
Half right again – although our prediction of 'nowhere' was on the assumption that the same tactics that had worked in Manchester but failed in Beijing would be used again in Pruszkow. Cavendish and Kennaugh rode well as a team and the tactics looked fine until a bike-breaking crash left Kennaugh sprawled all over the apron while the Belgians attacked and the Danes and the Australians took a lap. After that, there was little the Manx pair could do. They'd amassed enough points to take Silver if they could have taken the lap, but in the end 6th was scant reward for their hard work.
Cavendish also rode the Scratch and was, like the rest of the field, a little naïve in letting the 6 rider break away go. Unlike most of them, though, he was prepared to chase them down. Unfortunately, by the time he and Kiwi Hayden Godfrey began the chase it was too late to do anything about them, other than win the sprint for 7th; best of the rest.
Despite the lack of success, Cavendish seemed happy to be back on the track and the pairing with Kennaugh looks very promising for 2012.
The Points race is historically a bit of a lottery, but Olympic Bronze medallist Chris Newton is turning it into a science. We think he'll do better than he did in Beijing, but not quite manage to pull it off. Our prediction : Silver and a Gold in the Team Pursuit
Hard to win a Team Pursuit medal if you're not in the Team Pursuit squad, we admit, but that was the rumour in the lead up to the event.
We did better with the Points race prediction, though – out by one medal and then only by a single point. As one of the few male medallists, Chris should be pleased with himself, but he would have preferred to be on a higher step on that podium.
Lizzie Armitstead has been flying in the World Cup and looks a likely Points race winner and is in with a shout in the scratch. We think she'll get one, but not the other. Our prediction : Points Gold; Scratch Silver
This is the prediction we're most proud of, even though we got two out of three predictions wrong! We said Lizzie would get a Gold and a Silver, and she did. We said she'd get Silver in the Scratch and, despite a fall with 5 laps to go, she did.
Despite a nasty wrist injury, she also managed a Bronze in the Points race but both of those medals came after a well earned Gold in the Team Pursuit! One of two women who each won a third of Great Britain's medal total and who both flew home with a full set of Gold, Silver and Bronze medals.
The women's Team Pursuit team of Katie Colclough, Wendy Houvenaghel and Joanna Rowsell is marginally more experienced than the men's equivalent and we think they'll be the class of the field. Our prediction : Team pursuit Gold
It was closer than we thought it would be – and we didn't get the line-up quite right – but Houvenaghel and Rowsell did indeed clinch the Gold. Fantastic performance from the Women's team.
Wendy Houvenaghel is also targetting a Gold in the Individual Pursuit and is keen to come out of Rebecca Romero's shadow. She deserves it and is capable of it, but the Team Pursuit makes it a tough double. The Individual Pursuit opens the Championships, but the training for both events will have taken its toll. We'd love to kick off the event by getting it wrong, but... Our prediction : Team Pursuit Gold; Individual Pursuit Silver
This was the one we really wanted to get wrong, but unfortunately we were on the money on both predictions. Wendy was devastated after the individual but following the Gold in the team event she was incredibly upbeat and focused on what she needs to do to win Gold in the Individual next year. And that's our first prediction for Ballerup 2010.
Sprint
Matthew Crampton has been going well in training and looks likely to be part of the Team Sprint squad along with Kenny and Staff. He's also a cracking Keirin rider, but the competition from the French in both events is enormous. Our prediction : Silver in the Team Sprint and a win in the minor final in the Keirin – seventh
We were sticking out necks out a bit with the Team Sprint prediction. Everyone else was confident that – even without Chris Hoy – we were favourites for the Gold. To be honest, it was closer than we expected but the result was always on the cards. Spot on. Matt rode brilliantly in the heats but faded a bit in the final – still a great performance at this stage in his career. There are a few academy riders hot on their heels, but for now the future of British sprinting looks good in the hands of Crampton, Kenny and Daniell.
We were one place out with the Keirin – after knocking Kenny out in the First Round rep and heading Ross Edgar in qualification for the final, he'll not have been happy with a fifth place finish – behind Edgar and out of touch with the medals.
And, of course, he picked up a 6th place behind Kenny in the Sprint.
David Daniell is down for the Kilometre Time Trial and is a reserve for the Kierin and the Sprint. On his day he's capable of a medal and his relatively poor performance at the final World Cup round in Copenhagen really hurt. There's no question in our minds that Daniell is a future World Champion, but possibly not just yet. Expect him to be in with a shout, but just miss out. Our predicition : Fourth
Fastest of all over the first half of the race, Daniell sat in the Bronze medal position for most of the session, eventually finishing 7th, just half a second off the medals. Encouragingly, his first 500m remained fastest of all at the end and even with a lap to go he set the second fastest time...
As this was written, GB's plans for the Keirin weren't public, but we suspect Ross Edgar's going to be in it, but we don't think he's on good enough form to win it. Our prediction : Bronze
After a stunning ride to win his First Round Repechage, Edgar followed Crampton over the line in the Second Round to book a place in the Final. Fourth will have been frustrating, but getting one over on the young guns in the Sprint squad should have given him some satisfaction.
Ross Edgar will probably be disappointed with his 8th place in the Sprint, but he took Malaysian sprint sensation and eventual Silver medallist Azizulhasni Awang to three in the Quarter finals.
Jason Kenny will lead the medal haul among the male sprinters and has the best chance of a Gold in the Sprint. We think he'll do it – and take the runner up spot in the Team Sprint. Our prediction : Gold in the Sprint; Silver in the Team Sprint
Well, we were right about the Team Sprint... There's no shortage of raw speed – Kenny qualified second fastest in the 200m Time Trial, missing out on the magic sub-10 second mark by just 3 thousandths of a second, but tactically he was disappointing in the Sprint, well beaten by eventual Gold Medallist Gregory Bauge of France in the Quarter Finals.
The biggest disappointment will have been the Keirin, where he lost out on the single Second Round place from his First Round Repechage to team mate Matthew Crampton.
Hopefully, the experience will do the Beijing Gold and Silver Medallist the world of good and, as the fuss dies down from last summer's Olympic circus, he'll find his form again. Unquestionably one of the best sprinters in the world.
Jamie Staff is a one event, one lap legend. His lead off lap in the Team Pursuit is the quickest in the world, but the French are flying and we're not quite sure it will be enough. Our prediction : Silver
Jamie will be disappointed with himself after the Worlds. Only fourth fastest over the opening 250 metres in qualifying, he gave his team mates a lot to do. Kenny rode the fastest middle lap and Crampton was second fastest over the third, which put them back in contention, finishing just a tenth off the pace of the French. And in the final he was a tenth closer to Bauge out of the gate, with Kenny again fastest. Crampton, this time, couldn't quite match Sireau, but this epic Anglo-French battle isn't over yet...
Anna Blyth won Gold in the Team Sprint with Jess Varnish at Manchester's World Cup round last autumn and she's an outside shot for a medal in the Keirin here. Our prediction : Keirin Bronze
Anna would have struggled to get a Bronze in the Keirin – not having entered the event. But she struggled in the Omnium, too, setting a reasonable time in the 200m Time Trial but trailing in last in the Scratch. She knew at that point that she had no chance of a meal and it showed.
In the 500m Time Trial she finished 14th, just over a second off the medal pace.
Victoria Pendleton and Shanaze Reade look unbeatable in the Team Sprint and Pendleton is more than capable of winning the Sprint, Keirin and 500m Time Trial titles as well – individually. We think she'll get three of the four. Our prediction : Team Sprint Gold; Keirin Gold; Sprint Gold; 500m Time Trial Silver
We were probably a bit optimisitic here, but with a talent like Pendleton's it's hard not to be. We were one place out in the Team Sprint, spot on in the Sprint and only one out on the 500m Time Trial – Pendelton's Bronze was her best ever at that event.
The only one we were way out on was the Keirin and, after the physical and emotional exhaustion she showed at the end of the titanic Sprint battle with Willy Kanis of the Netherlands, we were half expecting her to drop out of the event altogether. Nobody would have blamed her. She looked jaded in the first round but dug deep in the repechage as if to remind us that, under other circumstances, she could...
The only Beijing Gold medallist, male or female, to get a Gold in the same event in Pruszkow. The star of the show. Again.
Shanaze Reade shares a BMX background with Jamie Staff and also looks good for a medal in the Team Sprint. She's capable of a 500m TT medal, too, but perhaps not this year. Our prediction : Team Sprint Gold
Silver. Not a million miles away. Despite setting the fifth fastest opening lap in qualifying and finding another two tenths in the final, on both occasions Anna Meares of Australia was a stunning half a second faster than Reade - and although Pendleton clawed back over three tenths against McCulloch in both cases, it wasn't going to be three in a row.
Jess Varnish is the junior member of the Worlds squad – in fact, she's still at school. Despite that, this is her second World Championships and we expect to see a significant improvement over last year and make it through to the match sprint rounds in the Sprint competition. We caught up with Jess before she flew out to Poland.
The only Brit we didn't predict a medal four, nonetheless Jess had a good Championship and is progressing well. In our pre-Worlds interview she set her self the goal of qualifying for the match sprints and doing well in the Keirin. She did both, beating Yvonne Hijgenaar in the first round of the Keirin and only just losing out to her in the repechage. In the Sprints, she was unlucky enough to draw Olga Panarina of Belarus – who lost out to Simona Krupeckaite in the Bronze Medal ride-off – in the sudden-death 1/16 final.
Despite the doom and gloom in some quarters – and Dave Brailsford's undisguised disappointment – we think it was an encouraging performance – in part taking into account the absence of previous medal winners Hoy, Wiggins and Romero but also reflecting on the near misses of some of the youngsters and the fact that the British team medalled in the Men's Points Race and both the Women's Points and Scratch race, events where GB had not traditionally been strong.
The next couple of years are going to be very interesting.